Water quality assessment, trophic classification and water resources management

Quantification of water quality (WQ) is an integral part of scientifically based water resources management. The main objective of this study was comparative analysis of two approaches applied for quantitative assessment of WQ: the trophic level index (TLI) and the Delphi method (DM). We analyzed the following features of these conceptually different approaches: A. similarity of estimates of lake WQ; B. sensitivity to indicating disturbances in the aquatic ecosystem structure and functioning; C. capacity to reflect the impact of major management measures on the quality of water resources. We compared the DM and TLI based on results from a series of lakes covering varying productivity levels, mixing regimes and climatic zones. We assumed that the conservation of aquatic ecosystem in some predefined, “reference”, state is a major objective of sustainable water resources management in the study lakes. The comparison between the two approaches was quantified as a relationship between the DM ranks and respective TLI values. We show that being a classification system, the TLI does not account for specific characteristics of aquatic ecosystems and the array of different potential uses of the water resource. It indirectly assumes that oligotrophication is identical to WQ improvement, and reduction of economic activity within the lake catchment area is the most effective way to improve WQ. WQ assessed with the TLI is more suitable for needs of natural water resources management if eutrophication is a major threat. The DM allows accounting for several water resource uses and therefore it may serve as a more robust and comprehensive tool for WQ quantification and thus for sustainable water resources management

Using Stable Carbon and Nitrogen Isotopes to Investigate the Impact of Desalination Brine Discharge on Marine Food Webs

Stable isotope ratios were used to trace the impact of anthropogenically derived brine from desalination plants on organisms at different trophic levels (primary producers and consumers) along the highly urbanized ultra-oligotrophic Israeli coast (southeast Mediterranean). Primary producer and consumer organisms were collected from two sampling stations at two desalination plants sites: an “Impacted station,” near the brine discharge outlets, and a “Control station” situated further offshore to the impacted zone. δ13C and δ15N values of both producers and consumers displayed minor variations between the impacted and control stations, indicating little effect of brine discharge on the coastal trophic structure. The coastal δ15N values were generally higher than those of similar pelagic communities of the southeastern Mediterranean. These were particularly high in benthic invertebrates and benthic carnivores (fish) from the southern site, where high anthropogenically N loads from ground water amelioration are discarded alongside the brine. The observed differences in the δ15N of the benthic components between the two study sites suggest that brine derived density plumes from desalination plants are a possible vector of nutrients to benthic communities. The results indicate that the benthic components were the most sensitive group to anthropogenic derived N pollution, and provide insight into site-specific processes

Mutagen-Specific Mutation Signature Determines Global microRNA Binding

Micro-RNAs (miRNAs) are small non-coding RNAs that regulate gene products at the post-transcriptional level. It is thought that loss of cell regulation by miRNAs supports cancer development. Based on whole genome sequencing of a melanoma tumor, we predict, using three different computational algorithms, that the melanoma somatic mutations globally reduce binding of miRNAs to the mutated 3′UTRs. This phenomenon reflects the nature of the characteristic UV-induced mutation, C-to-T. Furthermore, we show that seed regions are enriched with Guanine, thus rendering miRNAs prone to reduced binding to UV-mutated 3′UTRs. Accordingly, mutation patterns in non UV-induced malignancies e.g. lung cancer and leukemia do not yield similar predictions. It is suggested that UV-induced disruption of miRNA-mediated gene regulation plays a carcinogenic role. Remarkably, dark-skinned populations have significantly higher GC content in 3′UTR SNPs than light-skinned populations, which implies on evolutionary pressure to preserve regulation by trans-acting oligonucleotides under conditions with excess UV radiation

Using ecosystem models to inform ecosystem-based fisheries management in Europe: a review of the policy landscape and related stakeholder needs

The need to implement an ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is enshrined in numerous regulations and strategies, at both global and European level. In practice, it is challenging to implement EBFM because it requires a complex evaluation of interlinked management effects and environmental and climate forcing on multi-species interactions, habitat status and human activities. Ecosystem models are one of the most critical research tools to inform EBFM, because they can integrate a wide variety of data, examine multiple and complex ecosystem interactions, and can make forecasts based on specific management scenarios. However, despite clear progress in marine ecosystem modelling, many models do not address policy goals and targets, which hinders uptake in policy. In this paper, we review the global and European policies and implementing bodies which directly or indirectly have a repercussion on the implementation of EBFM. Moreover, we highlight specific stakeholder needs related to the implementation of EBFM in European waters, which ecosystem models could help address. We review the policy commitments that drive these needs and the concerns raised by stakeholders during a survey and dedicated workshop. Key topics of concern were effects of climate change; bycatch; protected areas/fisheries restricted areas; and reducing the impacts of trawling. Stakeholders also provided specific questions related to these topics which ecosystem models could help address. Scenario and data results visualizations, as well as specific barriers in using the results of ecosystem models for decision-making are also discussed. A close involvement of stakeholders in scenario development and in designing graphical outputs is important, and can help overcome some of the main barriers that can hinder uptake of models and scenarios, including a lack of understanding of the benefits and limits of ecosystem models; insufficient involvement and interaction with stakeholders; and inadequate characterization of uncertainties.publishedVersio

Planktonic functional diversity changes in synchrony with lake ecosystem state

Managing ecosystems to effectively preserve function and services requires reliable tools that can infer changes in the stability and dynamics of a system. Conceptually, functional diversity (FD) appears as a sensitive and viable monitoring metric stemming from suggestions that FD is a universally important measure of biodiversity and has a mechanistic influence on ecological processes. It is however unclear whether changes in FD consistently occur prior to state responses or vice versa, with no current work on the temporal relationship between FD and state to support a transition towards trait-based indicators. There is consequently a knowledge gap regarding when functioning changes relative to biodiversity change and where FD change falls in that sequence. We therefore examine the lagged relationship between planktonic FD and abundance-based metrics of system state (e.g. biomass) across five highly monitored lake communities using both correlation and cutting edge non-linear empirical dynamic modelling approaches. Overall, phytoplankton and zooplankton FD display synchrony with lake state but each lake is idiosyncratic in the strength of relationship. It is therefore unlikely that changes in plankton FD are identifiable before changes in more easily collected abundance metrics. These results highlight the power of empirical dynamic modelling in disentangling time lagged relationships in complex multivariate ecosystems, but suggest that FD cannot be generically viable as an early indicator. Individual lakes therefore require consideration of their specific context and any interpretation of FD across systems requires caution. However, FD still retains value as an alternative state measure or a trait representation of biodiversity when considered at the system level

Multi-model projections of future evaporation in a sub-tropical lake

Lake evaporation plays an important role in the water budget of lakes. Predicting lake evaporation responses to climate change is thus of paramount importance for the planning of mitigation and adaption strategies. However, most studies that have simulated climate change impacts on lake evaporation have typically utilised a single mechanistic model. Whilst such studies have merit, projected changes in lake evaporation from any single lake model can be considered uncertain. To better understand evaporation responses to climate change, a multi-model approach (i.e., where a range of projections are considered), is desirable. In this study, we present such multi-model analysis, where five lake models forced by four different climate model projections are used to simulate historic and future change (1901–2099) in lake evaporation. Our investigation, which focuses on sub-tropical Lake Kinneret (Israel), suggested considerable differences in simulated evaporation rates among the models, with the annual average evaporation rates varying between 1232 mm year−1 and 2608 mm year−1 during the historic period (1901–2005). We explored these differences by comparing the models with reference evaporation rates estimated using in-situ data (2000–2005) and a bulk aerodynamic algorithm. We found that the model ensemble generally captured the intra-annual variability in reference evaporation rates, and compared well at seasonal timescales (RMSEc = 0.19, R = 0.92). Using the model ensemble, we then projected future change in evaporation rates under three different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5. Our projections indicated that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), annual average evaporation rates would increase in Lake Kinneret by 9–22 % under RCPs 2.6–8.5. When compared with projected regional declines in precipitation, our projections suggested that the water balance of Lake Kinneret could experience a deficit of 14–40 % this century. We anticipate this substantial projected deficit combined with a considerable growth in population expected for this region could have considerable negative impacts on water availability and would consequently increase regional water stress

A multi-lake comparative analysis of the General Lake Model (GLM): Stress-testing across a global observatory network

The modelling community has identified challenges for the integration and assessment of lake models due to the diversity of modelling approaches and lakes. In this study, we develop and assess a one-dimensional lake model and apply it to 32 lakes from a global observatory network. The data set included lakes over broad ranges in latitude, climatic zones, size, residence time, mixing regime and trophic level. Model performance was evaluated using several error assessment metrics, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted for nine parameters that governed the surface heat exchange and mixing efficiency. There was low correlation between input data uncertainty and model performance and predictions of temperature were less sensitive to model parameters than prediction of thermocline depth and Schmidt stability. The study provides guidance to where the general model approach and associated assumptions work, and cases where adjustments to model parameterisations and/or structure are required

Expandable external support device to improve Saphenous Vein Graft Patency after CABG

Objectives: Low patency rates of saphenous vein grafts remain a major predicament in surgical revascularization. We examined a novel expandable external support device designed to mitigate causative factors for early and late graft failure. Methods: For this study, fourteen adult sheep underwent cardiac revascularization using two vein grafts for each; one to the LAD and the other to the obtuse marginal artery. One graft was supported with the device while the other served as a control. Target vessel was alternated between consecutive cases. The animals underwent immediate and late angiography and were then sacrificed for histopathologic evaluation. Results: Of the fourteen animals studied, three died peri-operatively (unrelated to device implanted), and ten survived the follow-up period. Among surviving animals, three grafts were thrombosed and one was occluded, all in the control group (p = 0.043). Quantitative angiographic evaluation revealed no difference between groups in immediate level of graft uniformity, with a coefficient-of-variance (CV%) of 7.39 in control versus 5.07 in the supported grafts, p = 0.082. At 12 weeks, there was a significant non-uniformity in the control grafts versus the supported grafts (CV = 22.12 versus 3.01, p < 0.002). In histopathologic evaluation, mean intimal area of the supported grafts was significantly lower than in the control grafts (11.2 mm^2 versus 23.1 mm^2 p < 0.02). Conclusions: The expandable SVG external support system was found to be efficacious in reducing SVG’s non-uniform dilatation and neointimal formation in an animal model early after CABG. This novel technology may have the potential to improve SVG patency rates after surgical myocardial revascularization

Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: A community perspective

Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity by comparing and combining different aspects of existing models. Finally, we discuss how model diversity came about in the past and could evolve in the future. Throughout our study, we use analogies from biodiversity research to analyse and interpret model diversity. We recommend to make models publicly available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5–10 years. To strive for clarity and to improve readability for non-modellers, we include a glossary

Working group on ecosystem assessment of Western European shelf seas (WGEAWESS)

The ICES Working Group on Ecosystem Assessment of Western European Shelf Seas (WGEA-WESS) aims to provide high quality science in support to holistic, adaptive, evidence-based man-agement in the Celtic seas, Bay of Biscay and Iberian coast regions. The group works towards developing integrated ecosystem assessments for both the (i) Celtic Seas and (ii) Bay of Biscay and Iberian Coast which are summarized in the Ecosystem Overviews (EOs) advice products that were recently updated. Integrated Trend Analysis (ITA) were performed for multiple sub-ecoregions and used to develop an understanding of ecosystem responses to pressures at varying spatial scales. Ecosystem models (primarily Ecopath with Ecosim; EwE) were developed and identified for fisheries and spatial management advice. The updated Celtic Seas EO represents a large step forward for EOs, with the inclusion of novel sections on climate change, foodweb and productivity, the first application of the new guidelines for building the conceptual diagram, inclusion of socio-economic indicators, and progress made toward complying with the Transparent Assessment Framework (TAF). We highlight ongoing issues relevant to the development and communication of EO conceptual diagrams. A common methodology using dynamic factor analysis (DFA) was used to perform ITA in a comparable way for seven subregions. This was supported by the design and compilation of the first standardized cross-regional dataset. A comparison of the main trends evidenced among subregions over the period 1993–2020 was conducted and will be published soon. A list of available and developing EWE models for the region was also generated. Here, we re-port on the advances in temporal and spatial ecosystem modelling, such as their capacity to model the impacts of sector activities (e.g. renewables and fisheries) and quantify foodweb indi-cators. We also reflect on model quality assessment with the key run of the Irish sea EwE model. The group highlighted the hurdles and gaps in current models in support of EBM, such as the choice of a relevant functional, spatial, and temporal scales and the impacts of model structure on our capacity to draw comparisons from models of different regions. The group aims to ad-dress these issues in coming years and identify routes for ecosystem model derived information into ICES advice.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio